Science Homework Help

Section I: Pacific Islands

Hypothesis: What is the evidence for rising sea level in Pacific Islands?

This task focuses on collection of determination of changes in water levels during this century based on data from tidal stations. The first part (a) is to collate the difference between verified and predicted water levels at three tidal stations in the Pacific Islands for three different years, entering answers in the table provided. Part (b) requires calculation of the changes in water levels (i.e. the differences between the data from specific years), and part (c) asks for a brief assessment (~30-50 words) of the changes in water level determined for the four locations.

Strong answers will accurately report the changes in water levels from the datum (predicted levels) for appropriate years and locations and calculate the changes over specific intervals of time, summarizing and comparing the characteristics of the data sets examined.

a. Sea Level Rise on Pacific Islands (2 points)

Compilation of data from three tidal stations reporting their name, and measurements for sea level rise (difference between verified and predicted water levels) determined for three different years.

(A strong answer will provide the difference between verified and projected water levels from the water level in the same month for three years that are spaced several years apart, e.g. 2000, 2007 and 2013.)

	Name of Tidal Station	Date (mm/yy)	Rise (ft)	Date (mm/yy)	Rise (ft)	Date (mm/yy)	Rise (ft)
1	Kwajalein, Marshall Islands	June 2000	.141 ft	June 2007	.194 ft	June 2013	.15 ft
2	Apra Harbor, Guam	June 2000	.2 ft	June 2007	.25 ft	June 2013	.24 ft
3	Pago Pago, American Samoa	June 2000	.17ft	June 2007	0 ft	June 2013	.05 ft

b. Pacific Islands Sea Level Rise (2 points)

Calculation of the rate of sea level change (rise or fall in ft/yr) for two of the three tidal stations in part (a) based on data for specific years, and an estimate of the overall trend (average) based on these data.

(A strong answer will provide calculations of the rise for separate time periods and an average value based on these data.)

	Name of Tidal Station	Years	Rise (ft/yr)	Years	Rise (ft/yr)	Average Rise (ft/yr)
1	Kwajalein, Marshall Islands	2000- 2007	.008 ft	2007- 2013	-.007 ft	.0005 ft
2	Apra Harbor, Guam	2000- 2007	.007 ft	2007- 2013	-.002 ft	.0025 ft

c. Evaluation & Discussion (3 points)

Summarize and explain the range of the values reported for sea level rise on Pacific Islands.

(A strong answer will describe and evaluate the overall range of values for sea level change, specifically similarities or differences among these data.)

(Write your answer here)

*Complete part C

Section III:

Hypothesis: Are changes in sea level uniform throughout the Pacific or globally?

This task focuses on collection of determination of changes in water levels during this century based on data from tidal stations.

a. Data for Sea Level Trends at a Selection of Global Locations (3 points)

Compile the rates of sea level change for a selection of locations, as provided by the global map of sea level trends.

(A strong answer will provide the rates of sea level change for at least 5 locations that include Pacific Islands, stations on the West Coast and East Coast, in Alaska, and others that your choose.)

	Tidal Station Name	Sea Level Change (cm/yr)		Tidal Station Name	Sea Level Change (cm/yr)
1	Kodiak Island, Alaska	-9.97		Key West, Florida	2.42
2	Los Angeles, California	1.01		Honolulu, Hawaii	1.49
3	Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico	1.82

b. Evaluation & Discussion (3 points)

Compare the range of values for sea level change recorded in the table and data from Sections I and II to assess whether sea leKvel changes is uniform on local (e.g. among the Pacific islands) or global scales.

(A strong answer will compare the values obtained in part (a) from the global to assess their similarities and differences on local and global scales with reference to data for specific locations.)

(Write your answer here)

Bonus Task:

a. What factors contribute to falling sea level at some locations, such as tidal stations in Alaska? (3 bonus points)

This question can be answered by reference to the locations that show sea level fall, coupled with a discussion of the processes related to climate change and deglaciation that lead to a rise in sea level at some locations and a fall at others (~30-50 words).

(A strong answer will identify specific locations and regions that are experiencing a fall in sea level and explain the role of either tectonics or isostasy in producing this phenomenon.)

(Write your answer here)

*COMPLETE PART B and bonus task

Section I: Hurricane Sandy

Hypothesis: What path did Hurricane Sandy follow in 2012 and how extensive was its storm surge?

This task involves: (a) describing (~20-50 words) the path of Hurricane Sandy and whether observations matched predictions, (b) documenting its storm surge measured by differences between verified and predicted water levels at tidal stations, and (c) assessing (~30-50 words) of the magnitude of its storm surge along the coast.

a. Track of Hurricane Sandy (2 points)

Describe the path of Hurricane Sandy, and its strength (hurricane category) along its track. Did the 3-day cone and advisories for Hurricane Sandy reflect the path it followed?

(A strong answer will describe Hurricane Sandy’s track, its strength and proximity to the East coast, where it made landfall, and the accuracy of the predictions of its path shown by the 3-day cone.)

Hurricane Sandy began off the east coast of Honduras, and headed in a north/northeastern direction. It began at around 39 mph wind speed. It reached 74 mph at Jamaica, and reached 96 mph around Cuba. It then slowed down to about 74 mph until it hit the east coast of the United States.

b. Storm Surge Data (2 points)

Compile data from water level records at the tidal stations recommended to determine the magnitude of the peak storm surge associated with Hurricane Sandy at a series of locations along the East Coast.

(A strong answer will complete details for at least four tidal stations on the East Coast, identifying the surge as the maximum difference between predicted and verified water levels, determining its timing and calculating its magnitude.)

	Name of Tidal Station	Station ID	Date (mm/dd)	Time (GMT)	Predicted (ft)	Verified (ft)	Surge (ft)
1	I-295 Bridge, St. Johns River FL	8720357	October 2012	8:30 GMT	.743 ft	1.71 ft	.967 ft
2	Beaufort, Duke Marine Lab NC	8656483	October 2012	00:06 GMT	3.362 ft	4.89 ft	1.528 ft
3	Kiptopeke, VA	8632200	October 2012	13:48 GMT	3.113 ft	6.67 ft	3.557 ft
4	Lewes, DE	8557380	October 2012	6:24 GMT	.135 ft	4.89 ft	4.754 ft

c. Storm Surge Assessment (3 points)

How did the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy vary among locations along the East Coast? Where did it reach a maximum? Did the surge match its proximity to the coast as observed in part (a)?

(A strong answer will describe the data presented in part (b), reporting on the variations in the storm surge among locations, and comparing the surge with the location of Hurricane Sandy as it moved northward.)

(Write your answer here)

*COMPLETE PART C

Section III: Comparison

Hypotheses: Which hurricane – Sandy or Arthur – generated the larger storm surge? What coastal damage can be attributed to Hurricane Sandy?

a. Storm Surge Assessment (3 points)

How did the storm surges of Hurricanes Sandy and Arthur differ among locations along the East Coast in terms of their maximum sizes and location?

(A strong answer will compare the data obtained in Parts I and II of the exercise, reporting spatial variations in the magnitude of storm surge, and comparing the progression of the two storm surges.)

The storm surges from Sandy and Arthur are of similar values at the maximum level of surge observed but in very different locations. Hurricane Sandy reached a maximum storm surge at Lewes, DE, of 4.754 ft, and Hurricane Arthur reached a maximum storm surge level at Oregon Inlet Marina, North Carolina, of 4.341 ft. The storm surge of Hurricane Arthur was much further south than that of Hurricane Sandy as Arthur reached a maximum in North Carolina and Sandy in Delaware. The two storms have a similar storm surge level of 4.754 and 4.341 ft.

b. Coastal Erosion (3 points)

Describe specific aspects of the damage from Hurricane Sandy observed at the three designated locations, Mantoloking, Brigantine and Rockaway.

(A strong answer will report observations from each location, noting in particular features of coastal erosion – rather than property damage – as evident through comparison of before and after images.)

(Write your answer here)

Bonus Task: Has the coastal damage caused by Hurricane Sandy been repaired?

a. Repairs to Coastal Structures (3 bonus points)

Provide a brief assessment (~30-50 words) of efforts to repair coastal damage caused by Hurricane Sandy based on examination of Google Earth images for specific locations at regular time intervals since 2012.

(A strong answer will report specific observations from each location from a series of post-hurricane images, focusing on assessment of the areas from question (b) above.)

(Write your answer here)

*Complete PART B AND BONUS TASK A

Section I:

Hypothesis: What will be the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the future?

This task focuses on collection of estimation of future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 based on recent trends. It involves (a) choosing approaches to employ in estimating future atmospheric CO2, (b) determining the estimates for atmospheric CO2 in both 2044 and 2069 derived from these separate approaches, and (c) assessing and comparing the individual estimates for the different scenarios (~30-50 words).

a. Approaches Employed (4 points)

Describe the series of approaches (at least three different scenarios) used to estimate future atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that result in the values presented in the table of part (b).

(A strong answer will describe each method in turn, such as 1. Continuing annual increase of 2.381 ppm, equivalent to annual average from 2009 to 2018. 2. Annual increase of 2.86 ppm, equivalent to increase for 2018. 3. Annual increase of 2.363 ppm, equivalent to to decadal average from April 2009 to April 2019, thereafter increasing by 5%/year…etc. The chosen scenarios will also be assessed based on their realism, i.e. improbable suggestions may earn less credit.)

Our approaches will be continuing the annual increase of the previous year to the desired year projecting forward at the current rate (2.86), using the annual increase of the previous decade to project forward to the desired year (2.381), and adjusting the annual increase of the past decade to reflect the upward pattern to get our annual increase until the desired year (2.363 + 5%/yr).

b. Future Atmospheric CO2 Levels (6 points)

Compilation of data derived from the approaches described in part (a).

(A strong answer will provide values for each cell, and have correctly and accurately calculated future values based on the scenarios chosen in part (a) to 2044 and 2069.)

	Start Year	Initial CO2 Concn. (ppm)	Annual Rate of Increase (ppm)	End Year	Total time (yr)	Total increase (ppm)	Final CO2 Concn. (ppm)
1	2019	413.77	2.86	2044	25	71.5	485.27
2	2019	413.77	2.381	2044	25	59.525	473.295
3	2019	413.77	2.381+ 5%/yr	2044	25	62.5	476.27
4	2019	413.77	2.86	2069	50	143	556.77
5	2019	413.77	2.381	2069	50	119.05	532.82
6	2019	413.77	2.381+5%/yr	2069	50	125	538.77

c. Evaluation & Discussion of Future Scenarios (5 points)

Explain the rationale for the individual scenarios chosen in part (a) and how the projected values for atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in 2044 and 2069 using the different approaches compare with one another. Suggest whether some estimates seem more appropriate or likely than others.

(A strong answer will evaluate projected CO2 concentrations for 2044, noting similarities and differences, and discuss the impact of variations in the annual rate of increase of CO2 on the values for 2044, followed by a similar evaluation and assessment of the data for 2069. )

(Write your answer here)

*COMPLETE PART C

Section II:

Hypothesis: When will the measures atmospheric concentration of CO2 at Mauna Loa first reach 560 ppmv (i.e. double pre-industrial levels of 280 ppmv)?

a. Approach Employed (1 point)

Describe the the approach used to estimate future atmospheric concentrations of CO2 that result in the values presented in the table of part (b).

(A strong answer will describe the method, akin to the approach adopted for the subgroup assignment, and may use an excel spreadsheet as an alternative to the table. The chosen scenario will also be assessed based on its realism, i.e. an improbable suggestion may earn less credit.)

Between the years 1959 and 2018, the average annual growth rate of atmospheric C02 concentration has increased 37%. Breaking this down further, the growth rate for atmospheric C02 concentration in the last 10 years is 2.5%. Using this is as a base-line, we can project the year CO2 will reach 560PPM

b. Future Scenario for Atmospheric CO2 Increase (2 points)

Compilation of data derived from the approach described in part (a).

(A strong answer will provide values for each cell, which have calculated future values based on the scenario chosen in part (a) to yield atmospheric concentrations of 560 ppmv.)

	Start Year	Initial CO2 Concn. (ppm)	Annual Rate of Increase (ppm)	End Year	Total time (yr)	Total increase (ppm)	Final CO2 Concn. (ppm)
1	2019	420	2.5%	2075	56	140	560

c. Evaluation & Discussion (2 points)

Explain the rationale for the scenario chosen in part (a) and the timing for when atmospheric concentrations of CO2 reach 560 ppm. Suggest whether this estimate seems appropriate.

(A strong answer will evaluate the scenario for projected CO2 concentrations of 560 ppmv.)

This estimate seems appropriate given the information we have regarding the growth rate of C02 concentrations in the last 50 years. Given the volatile nature of C02 emissions however, it is possible for the growth rate to change.

Bonus Task: What would the measured atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at Mauna Loa decrease to 280 ppmv if international agreements were adopted to decrease current concentration of CO2?

a. Scenario for CO2 Mitigation (3 bonus points)

Propose an annual rate for decreasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and estimate when this change would result in concentrations of 280 ppmv.

(A strong answer will choose a reasonable scenario for a decadal decrease (e.g. 5%, 10%) in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and calculate when – which year – it would lead to levels of 280 ppmv.)

	Start Year	Initial CO2 Concn. (ppm)	Annual Rate of Decrease (%)	Final CO2 Concn. (ppm)	Total time (yr)	Total decrease (ppm)	End Year
1	2019			280

*COMPLETE BONUS TASK